Posts Tagged John Avalos
For whatever people may say about Ranked Choice Voting, it sure didn’t cut into the power of incumbency.
Even a short-time interim candidate has an enormous advantage as we witnessed with Ed Lee.
His vote pattern for the night was fairly predictable: A huge lead with nearly 40 percent of the early mail in vote, and then a gradual settling to 31 percent (44,451 votes) by the time all the precincts were counted.
The showing of Supervisor John Avalos (26,447/18.7 percent), and City Attorney Dennis Herrera (15,967/1127 percent) were also somewhat predictable. In a Democratic town, both were one and two on the party slate card. A huge advantage and what some wondered was a racist tactic. Five key Asian American candidates, including the interim, and none get named to one of the top two slots?
The real question mark was how the Asian American candidates would do on their own, and it seemed break down by money raised. Boardof Supervisor President David Chiu raised the most money in the least time compared to the other candidates overall. But without the party or incumbency behind him, he managed only a fourth place finish (12,655/8.93 percent).
State Sen. Leland Yee was next with 10,595 votes, or 7.48 percent of the vote, perhaps showing how most of his ardent support in his two-county senate seat may be primarily in San Mateo County.
Public Defender Jeff Adachi was sixth with 9.075 votes or 6.41 percent. Adachi filed his candidacy on the last day and was also tied to a bold but unpopular pension reform proposal that also lost on Tuesday.
Just imagine if Ed Lee had kept his word to David Chiu and not run for Mayor.
Chiu just might be sitting were Lee is right now, leading—but not by a majority.
Instead, the top 6 finishers have 65.5 percent of the vote.
That means that likely the bottom ten with 35 percent of the vote will determine if and when Ed Lee gets the majority he needs.
Lee sits at 31.38. If he’s on slightly more than 19 percent of the second choice ballots of the bottom 10 candidates, he wins. It may be over before we have to count the No.2 choice of Yee at 5th place.
This is either the power of the folly of Ranked Choice Voting. The bottom folks have more power than you think.
Wouldn’t it be better just to have a runoff? More costly, but perhaps more transparent and definitely easier to understand.
RCV makes one wonder, “What the hell happened to my vote?”
The next tally is due by 4pm PST.
Let the games begin: 100 percent of the vote has been counted in SF, and Ed Lee needs 19 percent more of Ranked Choice ballots to win
Interim Mayor Ed Lee finished the count of first choice ballots with 44, 451 votes or 31.38 percent.
John Avalos was next with 26,447 votes, or 18.67 percent.
Dennis Herrera was third with 15,967 or 11.27 percent.
David Chiu was fourth with 12,655 votes, 8.93 percent.
Only these three have an outside chance of catching Lee who needs 50 percent plus 1.
He better hope he was nice to supporters of the 5th through 10th finishers.
Leland Yee with 10,595 votes or 7.48 percent.
Jeff Adachi, 9,075 votes, or 6.41 percent.
Bevan Dufty, 6704 votes, or 4.73 percent.
Tony Hall, 5,164 votes, or 3.65 percent.
Michela Alioto Pier, 5,063 votes, or 3.57 percent
Joanna Rees, 2,280 votes, or 1.61 percent
These candidates carry the bulk of the also-ran vote. As they get eliminated, their 2nd and 3rd choice ballots get distributed to whomever is designated.
If Ed Lee gets just 19 percent more of those votes he wins and makes history as the city’s first elected Asian American mayor.
This is where the last minute mudslinging might make a difference. Lee got his first place votes, but did all the news of voter fraud and campaign impropriety get him knocked off other candidates’ No.2 or No.3 ballots?
If it did, the trend of the shrinking Ed Lee lead could continue as Avalos, Herrera and possibly Chiu pick up 2nd choice votes.
If no one has a majority, then the registrar starts counting the third choice votes.
Is this really worth not having another election between the top two candidates?
While the elections office listed an 11:30on release of results, it looks as if the new results from the ranked choice balots will be at 4pm on Wednesday.
By then, Lee could have 50 percent plus 1, or not. If he didn’t get enough people to make him their No.2 choice, this could be a long and frustrating count lasting until Friday.
Update:With 59 percent of precincts counted in SF Mayoral race, Lee’s early lead wilts, Avalos comes on, other APA candidates trail
With 59 percent of the votes now counted, Ed Lee’s early big lead has shrunk to just a 17 percentage point lead over his next challenger, Supervisor John Avalos.
Lee had 36,956 vote or 33.28 percent of the vote. Avalos had 18,496 votes or 16.66 percent.
City Attorney Dennis Herrera was third with 12,482 or 11.24 percent of the vote.
As expected, the race tightens with Avalos, the top name on SF Democratic voter pamphlets, picking up steam.
The other premier Asian American candidates, David Chiu, Leland Yee, and Jeff Adachi were still in single digits.
If no one has a majority, the winner will be the candidate who can rack up the most 2nd choice votes.
With the top ten candidates getting over 95 percent of the vote, if Lee is in the No. 2 spot of candidates standing 6th through 10, currently Dufty, Hall, Alioto Pier, and Rees, it could be enough to give him the majority he needs for victory.
Next tally results set for 10:30 p.m.
The San Francisco Mayor’s Race, Filipino Americans and Ranked Choice Voting: Some thoughts after moderating a Filipino American community forum
What a difference Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) makes in San Francisco.
I had the privilege to moderate a San Francisco Mayoral Forum for the Filipino American community of San Francisco on Friday.
Normally, politicians are quick to challenge. Forums used to be like prize fights. All candidates had to do was speak and their words would clash.
But RCV has turned everyone into pussycats. No one flashes a fang nor claw, let alone a bucket of mud. Read the rest of this entry »