Category Archives: politics

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You can drop the interim now:Ed Lee is San Francisco’s first elected Asian American mayor

The second choices have spoken: Ed Lee has 61 percent of the vote, more than enough for the majority needed to win the San Francisco mayoral election.

Supervisor John Avalos more than doubled his election night position with 39 percent of the vote, but it was not enough to keep Lee from making history.

The vote was released at 4pm, with an intial listing showing just provisional ballots counted on this day. It showed virtually no change. But when 11 rounds of Ranked Choice ballots were posted, Lee was named on enough second choice ballots to take a commanding 25,000 vote lead.

Avalos told KCBS radio he is not conceding the race as 35,000 ballots still remain uncounted. 

Until that concession comes, Lee technically is only the “presumptive” winner.

More results will be posted by the city at 4pm Thursday.

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Ranked Choice to determine history in SF as Lee leads by 13 percent in first round of mayoral race

For whatever people may say about Ranked Choice Voting, it sure didn’t cut into the power of incumbency.

Even a short-time interim candidate has an enormous advantage as we witnessed with Ed Lee.

His vote pattern for the night was fairly predictable: A huge lead with nearly 40 percent of the early mail in vote,  and then a gradual settling to 31 percent (44,451 votes) by the time all the precincts were counted.

The showing of Supervisor John Avalos (26,447/18.7 percent), and City Attorney Dennis Herrera (15,967/1127 percent) were also somewhat predictable. In a Democratic town, both were one and two on the party slate card. A huge advantage and what some wondered was a racist tactic. Five key Asian American candidates, including the interim, and none get named to one of  the top two slots?

The real question mark was how the Asian American candidates would do on their own, and it seemed break  down by money raised. Boardof  Supervisor President David Chiu raised the most money in the least time compared to the other candidates overall. But without the party or incumbency behind him, he  managed only a  fourth place finish (12,655/8.93 percent).

State  Sen. Leland Yee was next with 10,595 votes, or  7.48 percent of the vote, perhaps showing how most of his ardent support in his two-county senate seat may be primarily in San Mateo County.

Public Defender Jeff Adachi was sixth with 9.075 votes or 6.41 percent.  Adachi filed his candidacy on the last day and was also tied to a bold but unpopular pension reform proposal  that also lost on Tuesday.

Just imagine if Ed Lee had kept his word to David Chiu and not run for Mayor.

Chiu just might be sitting were Lee is right now, leading—but not by a majority.

Instead,  the top 6 finishers have 65.5 percent of the vote.

That means that likely the bottom ten with 35 percent of the vote will determine if and when Ed Lee gets the majority he needs.

Lee sits at 31.38. If he’s on slightly more than 19 percent of the second choice ballots of the bottom 10 candidates, he wins. It may be over before we have to count  the No.2 choice of Yee at  5th place.

This is either the power of the folly of Ranked Choice Voting. The bottom folks have more power than you think. 

Wouldn’t it be better just to have a runoff? More costly, but perhaps more transparent and definitely easier to understand. 

RCV makes one wonder, “What the hell happened to my vote?”

The next tally is due by 4pm PST.

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Let the games begin: 100 percent of the vote has been counted in SF, and Ed Lee needs 19 percent more of Ranked Choice ballots to win

Interim Mayor Ed Lee finished the count of first choice ballots with 44, 451 votes or 31.38 percent.

John Avalos was next with 26,447 votes, or 18.67 percent.

 Dennis Herrera was third with 15,967 or 11.27 percent.

David Chiu was fourth with  12,655 votes, 8.93 percent.

Only these three have an outside chance of catching Lee who needs 50 percent plus 1.

He better hope he was nice to supporters of the 5th through 10th finishers.

They are:

Leland Yee with 10,595 votes  or 7.48 percent.                                                                  

Jeff Adachi, 9,075 votes, or 6.41 percent.

Bevan Dufty, 6704 votes, or 4.73 percent.

Tony Hall, 5,164 votes, or 3.65 percent.

Michela Alioto Pier, 5,063 votes, or 3.57 percent

Joanna Rees, 2,280 votes, or 1.61 percent

These candidates  carry the bulk of the also-ran vote. As they get eliminated, their 2nd and 3rd choice ballots get distributed to whomever is designated.

If Ed Lee gets just  19 percent more of those votes he wins and makes history as the city’s first elected Asian American mayor.

This is where the last minute mudslinging might make a difference. Lee got his first place votes, but did all the news of voter fraud and campaign impropriety get him knocked off other candidates’ No.2 or No.3 ballots?

If it did, the trend of the shrinking Ed Lee lead could continue as Avalos, Herrera and possibly Chiu pick up 2nd choice votes.

If  no one has a majority, then the registrar starts counting the third choice votes.

Is this really worth not having another election between the top two candidates?

While the elections office listed an 11:30on  release of results, it looks as if the new results from the ranked choice balots will be at 4pm on Wednesday.

By then, Lee could have 50 percent plus 1, or not. If he didn’t get enough people to make him their No.2 choice, this could be a long and frustrating count lasting until Friday.

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With 94percent of precincts counted, Lee’s margin shrinks again, 31.66 percent to Avalos’ 18.42

Interim Mayor Ed Lee’s edge is now down to 13 points as almost all of the first place votes are counted.

With 93.94 precints tallied, Lee had 43,366 votes or 31.66 percent to Avalos’ 25,235 votes, 18.42 percent of the voteb.

In subsequent updates, only Avalos has surged closer to Lee.

Dennis Herrera is third with 15,329 votes, or 11.19 percent.

David Chiu is fourth with 12,178, or 9 percent.

Once all the first choice votes are tallied, the second and third choices will be counted. That’s when the Ranked Choice Voting fun really begins.