Category Archives: politics

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Update:With 59 percent of precincts counted in SF Mayoral race, Lee’s early lead wilts, Avalos comes on, other APA candidates trail

With 59 percent of the votes now counted,  Ed Lee’s early big lead has shrunk to just a 17 percentage point lead over his next challenger, Supervisor John Avalos.

Lee had 36,956 vote or 33.28 percent of the vote. Avalos had 18,496 votes or 16.66 percent.

City Attorney Dennis Herrera was third with 12,482 or 11.24 percent of the vote.

As expected, the race tightens with Avalos, the top name on SF Democratic voter pamphlets, picking up steam.

The other premier Asian American candidates, David Chiu, Leland Yee, and Jeff Adachi were still in single digits.

If no one has a majority, the winner will be the candidate who can rack up the most 2nd choice votes.

With the top ten candidates getting over 95 percent of the vote, if  Lee is in the No. 2 spot of candidates standing 6th through 10, currently Dufty, Hall, Alioto Pier, and Rees, it could be enough to give him the majority he needs for victory.

Next tally results set for 10:30 p.m.

Official results:

http://sfelections.org/results/20111108/

blog, news, politics

Update: San Francisco Interim takes big step toward history: Ed Lee has 39.85 percent of the vote by mail turnout

Interim Mayor Ed Lee took the big lead in the first release of vote-by-mail ballots in the SF Mayoral race.

Lee got a commanding  26,621 votes or 39.85 percent of the votes counted so far.

Supervisor John Avalos and City Attorney Dennis Herrera are next with 10.6 percent and 10.24 percent, respectively. Both candidates were endorsed by the San Francisco Democratic Party.

Board of Supervisors President David Chiu was in fourth with 8.36 percent.

State Senator Leland Yee was in fifth with 8.25 percent.

Public Defender Jeff Adachi  was in sixth with 6.33 percent.

This first tally includes just the vote by mail which represents about 14.59 percent of all voters. The next release of votes at 9:45 will include the first ballots from today’s polling.

Those votes could reflect a totally different voter sentiment in light of voter  fraud allegations made against some of Lee’s supporters.

But if the trend continues, Lee would be very close to the 50 percent and 1 vote he needs to secure victory.

The top ten candidates received 97.65 percent.

If no one receives a majority,  the Ranked Choice Voting will eliminate the lowest ranking candidate one by one and distribute their backers’ 2nd and 3rd choices until one candidate gets a majority of the vote.

More detailed results at :

http://sfelections.org/results/20111108/

blog, news, politics, race

Monitors at SF Polls as voters try to make history–if Ranked Choice Voting lets them

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As expected, California’s Secretary of State has sent monitors to roam polling places in San Francisco making sure there’s no funny business in today’s election. It’s a clear sign that someone is taking the allegations of voter fraud and ballot tampering in the campaign seriously.

Seven candidates urged the state to monitor the election after allegations of election misconduct were made against volunteers for interim Mayor Ed Lee. The blue-shirted “Ed Heads” were seen marking and taking ballots from Chinese-speaking voters. One source told me Lee was supposed to sign on to the letter to make it a united front by the top candidates against any improprieties.  In Ranked Choice Voting races, you are supposed to get that kind of collegiality.  But not here. Lee was left off the letter, as some of the also-rans apparently chose to make this a last minute and not so subtle attack on Mayor Interim.

It could backfire on everyone.

Lee may slip back as everybody’s No.2 or No. 3 choice and more easily win a majority.

Or as people are hoping, angry voters could leave him off the ballot entirely, creating a real “Hail Mary” situation in Ranked Choice Voting. No one has a majority and every ballots’ No.2 and No.3 comes into play until a majority is had.

History at first blush may have seemed partial to a first Asian American mayor with so many Asian American candidates. But in a RCV shootout, who knows who gets the No.2s and No.3s. It doesn’t have to be an Asian American.

Whatever, the whole thing seems more random than not, though RCV supporters will say it’s totally logical. They may be able to explain it step by step so it makes theoretical sense. But in the effort to save time and money (no more costly runoff elections, what a deal!), RCV adds a confusing layer of complexity that leads to distrust.  

You don’t need to understand the math to vote.  You just need to trust the vote.  RCV takes voter sentiment out of context.  A second and third choice could be different if they have no chance to win on a subsequent tally. 

It makes you yearn for a simpler, old-fashioned way. Instant runoff savings?  It may not be worth it if voters end up wondering what the hell happened to their vote.

See my blog post at www.aaldef.org/blog

blog, news, politics, race

First Asian American Mayor in SF? Or Will Ranked-Choice Voting prevent it from happening?

Sure, I’d  like to see history be made.  But In my  “Amok” column for the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund blog, I wondered about the  scenario no one seems to want to contemplate. 

www.aaldef.org/blog

What if no Asian Americans get a majority of the vote and San Francisco fails to produce its first elected Asian American mayor?

It’s very possible that because of Ranked Choice Voting, as well as some of the recent headlines generated by the campaigns the last few weeks, that none of the five top Asian American  candidates could get  the majority needed to win.

And then what? Would that be the end of the world? Maybe for Rose Pak and Willie Brown, but that’s not so bad.

http://www.aaldef.org/blog/

If you’re a San Francisco registered voter, don’t forget to vote. And remember, that to really make your ballot count to its full potential under ranked choice voting, make it a triple.